Xwat Legel, Hillaryxan

So, Hillary's due to concede the Democratic nomination this week.

I can't really say that I'll miss her, but I am intrigued by the happenings.

There were two Democratic candidates who supported troop withdrawal in Iraq by leaving a residual force behind, most likely in Kurdistan - Joe Biden and HRC herself. Now, they're both out of the race.

Obama does NOT support a permanent troop presence in Iraq.

McCain, on the other hand, quite famously said that he supports the troop presence in Iraq for 100 years. This sound good, but the problem is that I fear that McCain sees victory in Iraq as victory for Iraq.

By that I mean that he - and most war supporters - expect Iraq to stay intact; partition would be a type of defeat.

I'll be waiting for the candidates to discuss alternative action plans for Iraq, but I won't be holding my breath or anything. I don't expect much.


Aimee said...

With your background and intimate knowledge of IQ, what do you think would be the best plan?

I'm asking because I think that of anyone I know, you're more likely to have the best answer. And, I'm just curious.

Tammy said...

I agree with Aimee, what would you like to see happen?

rdmeeker said...

Best case scenario is US support for an independent Kurdistan. Most likely, this would be coupled with the establishment of a permanent US military base - which would lessen our reliance on Turkey.

Then in the South, I would go so far as to divide the Sunni and Shia into to independent states. The populations are mixed in many area, but violence is already creating mass migration and official separation may help ease violence.

These are not people that have a history of unity.

The US gains an ally in the Middle East with an independent Kurdistan, but they gain enemies in Iran, Turkey and Syria. But, let's be real, those nations are already enemies, so I don't see it as a loss.

Moreover, the US has been pushing an agenda of democracy promotion and peace in Iraq. It's been successful in the north and I don't see any reason why the Kurds should be shackled to the south.

I think the Bush administration was surprised by the backlash against the war and fell apart. Their half-assed policies are killing people in Iraq. We, as a country, need to stop being afraid of criticism; we need to fix Iraq before we pull out.

Fixing it does not look like propping up a broken and ill-conceived Iraqi government. The only viable way to win this war is to give the "Iraqi" people what they want; Kurdish, Sunni and Shia nation states.

Mobea said...

From what I read this morning in the news, Turkey and Iran will not allow that to happen. It seems as though they are teaming up together now to attack Kurdistan. The plan is to attack it from both sides. It seems like Kurdistan is in a no win situation here. Unless they just want to give up the idea of becoming an independent country. What is more important to them? Is it worth it to Kurdistan to die to become an independent country? The Turks want the Kurds out of their country and so does Iran. So why don't they just go back to Kurdistan (what is left of it) and just keep peace.

rdmeeker said...

Both Turkey and Iran are attacking the portion of Kurdistan that is inside Iraq. The Kurdish nation, though, spans across Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria and they've lived in this area for thousands of years. In fact, the modern Kurds are descendants of the Medes mentioned in the Bible.

There is no "Kurdistan" for them to go back to. There are roughly 25 to 30 million Kurds in the region and only 5 million of them live within the boundaries of modern Iraq. The majority of them live inside Turkey, a nation that didn't exist before the end of WWI, just like Iraq and Syria.

Today, the only portion of Kurdistan which is pushing (and ready) for sovereignty is the portion in Iraq.

The Kurds in Turkey would like autonomy within Turkey - although the dream for most IS independence. In Turkey, they'd be happy with official recognition that they even exist and if their political parties weren't outlawed. That's 15 million or so people living in an area that predates the nation of Turkey, but unrecognized by their own government.

Both Turkey and Iran are shelling Iraqi Kurdistan to get at groups they consider terrorists, the PKK and PJAK. These are "freedom fighters" who operate within Turkey and Iran respectively.

Both have bases inside the mountainous region along Iraq's borders with the two countries.

The countries oppose Iraqi Kurdistan's independence because they fear that it could embolden their own Kurdish populations (which, as we know, don't actually exist in Turkey...)

In reality, both countries are reaping huge monetary rewards from the growing Kurdish economy within Iraq. all of the gasoline sold in Iraqi Kurdistan, for instance, comes from Iran or Turkey. Investment by Turkish and Iranian businesses is only growing as their governments use bombs to intimidate the Iraqi Kurdish government.